Thursday, 11 February 2010
Wednesday, 6 January 2010
The financial crisis, how did it happen?
The financial crisis – how did it happen?
I get irritated when I can’t understand what’s going on! So I read and listened and watched, even talked to a friend who is a banker. This is what happened – I think.
It began with the ‘Big Bang’ in 1986 when the Thatcher government deregulated the stock market. Fixed commission rates were abolished and the era of big bonuses arrived. Trading was no longer on the trading floor with loud young men waving their hands in the air, selling or buying stocks. The system was now Electronic, screen-based trading. It used the newly available powerful computers. This speeded up and expanded the whole system and made possible the disasters that were to follow.
This led to increased wealth and a ‘Boom’ that Gordon Brown proudly boasted would not again go ‘Bust’ – how wrong he was! This led to a steep and prolonged rise in the price of houses, both here and in America. There is an old financial adage that says ‘As safe as houses.’ Simply because, in living memory, the cost of houses have relentlessly risen.
Consequently, the holy grail of the banking world was a loan secured against a house – because houses always went up in value and you only loaned a percentage of the house’s value anyway. It was a safe loan – the bank or finance company couldn’t lose. If you hadn’t a house with equity in it, you couldn’t have a loan thank you very much!
The crisis began in America with as little as two thousand greedy managers and their subordinates, who approved mortgage loans. The normal system of carefully assessing if a person could pay the monthly mortgage payment and was the house worth the asking price, disappeared. Anyone, even if they had no hope of ever finding a job, could have a loan. It didn’t matter if they couldn’t pay because banks or financial institutions will bear the risk. The mortgage seller got a big fat bonus ( typical estate agent’s fee in America is an astonishing 6% of the value!) and there was no comeback if it all went south – as the Americans say.
Why? The guys at the banks were smart. They could sell the mortgage risk on to another bank. They in turn might sell it – or usually – a fraction of it on to another bank. These fractions of mortgages were sold in ‘bundles’. Sometimes hundreds or thousand of fractions of dodgy mortgages were flying round the world, carried on super-computers and hardly anyone understood it all. To make matters worse, the further away from the original lender the money travelled, the lower the priority it had on any repayment or foreclosure sale. The first lender had ‘First call’ on say the first ten percent. Someone else had ‘Second call’ on the next, say twenty percent and so on until the banks that had bits of the last fifty percent had no chance of getting anything back. But no one knew because the computers were too complicated, or those that did, didn’t care because they had just had a Christmas bonus of one million pounds.
The most important facts were:
• The seller and the buyer of a bundle received a fat bonus every time the bundle was moved.
• There was no risk because it could be sold on.
• It would all be fine eventually because everyone knew they were secured against houses – that always went up in value – didn’t they?
The value of houses everywhere had become over-inflated. A readjustment had to occur. The values went down. Banks here had been making loans up to six times a persons income – all to get the big bonuses. After all, there was no risk – they thought house prices would always go up.
Except they didn’t! There was no incentive or check on the reckless sellers of mortgages in America. All they cared about was their big bonuses. Eventually, there were trillions of dollars in ‘TOXIC LOANS’ swishing around the banking world in thousands of bundles. The inbuilt warning mechanisms in the super-computers’ programmes began to flash red as the situation neared meltdown levels. The worst culprit in the UK was Northern Rock. It was borrowing billions on very short-term contracts of typically three months, to finance long-term loans many times greater than its assets. Then someone noticed! Other banks refused to lend them any more money because they were insolvent. In steps the government bails out this small Mickey Mouse bank with tens of billions of taxpayers money, to save a nationwide run on the banks.
The worst in America was Lehman Brothers who amazingly had loaned out eighty dollars for every dollar it owned! The American government had more sense than ours and let it go bust. Now all the banks in the world turned the computers to looking at how much their competitors were in trouble and the news was bad, very bad. As a result they stopped the short-term loans to each other that the whole ‘house of cards’ depended on and the toxic bundles carousel came to a grinding halt.
Trillions of dollars of taxpayers money around the world were poured in to stop a worldwide collapse of the banking system and our grandchildren will still be paying it off when we are gone. The chief accountant to the British government was asked in a TV interview, ‘If I gave you a copy of the annual audited accounts of Lloyds TSB Bank, would you be able to understand them?’ The answer was a firm ‘No’, and this from the country’s most senior accountant!
The human cost has been appalling. Repossessed houses and millions more jobless. Our children will be less prosperous as a result. The lesson is that unfettered greed and powerful computers together are a TOXIC mix.
I get irritated when I can’t understand what’s going on! So I read and listened and watched, even talked to a friend who is a banker. This is what happened – I think.
It began with the ‘Big Bang’ in 1986 when the Thatcher government deregulated the stock market. Fixed commission rates were abolished and the era of big bonuses arrived. Trading was no longer on the trading floor with loud young men waving their hands in the air, selling or buying stocks. The system was now Electronic, screen-based trading. It used the newly available powerful computers. This speeded up and expanded the whole system and made possible the disasters that were to follow.
This led to increased wealth and a ‘Boom’ that Gordon Brown proudly boasted would not again go ‘Bust’ – how wrong he was! This led to a steep and prolonged rise in the price of houses, both here and in America. There is an old financial adage that says ‘As safe as houses.’ Simply because, in living memory, the cost of houses have relentlessly risen.
Consequently, the holy grail of the banking world was a loan secured against a house – because houses always went up in value and you only loaned a percentage of the house’s value anyway. It was a safe loan – the bank or finance company couldn’t lose. If you hadn’t a house with equity in it, you couldn’t have a loan thank you very much!
The crisis began in America with as little as two thousand greedy managers and their subordinates, who approved mortgage loans. The normal system of carefully assessing if a person could pay the monthly mortgage payment and was the house worth the asking price, disappeared. Anyone, even if they had no hope of ever finding a job, could have a loan. It didn’t matter if they couldn’t pay because banks or financial institutions will bear the risk. The mortgage seller got a big fat bonus ( typical estate agent’s fee in America is an astonishing 6% of the value!) and there was no comeback if it all went south – as the Americans say.
Why? The guys at the banks were smart. They could sell the mortgage risk on to another bank. They in turn might sell it – or usually – a fraction of it on to another bank. These fractions of mortgages were sold in ‘bundles’. Sometimes hundreds or thousand of fractions of dodgy mortgages were flying round the world, carried on super-computers and hardly anyone understood it all. To make matters worse, the further away from the original lender the money travelled, the lower the priority it had on any repayment or foreclosure sale. The first lender had ‘First call’ on say the first ten percent. Someone else had ‘Second call’ on the next, say twenty percent and so on until the banks that had bits of the last fifty percent had no chance of getting anything back. But no one knew because the computers were too complicated, or those that did, didn’t care because they had just had a Christmas bonus of one million pounds.
The most important facts were:
• The seller and the buyer of a bundle received a fat bonus every time the bundle was moved.
• There was no risk because it could be sold on.
• It would all be fine eventually because everyone knew they were secured against houses – that always went up in value – didn’t they?
The value of houses everywhere had become over-inflated. A readjustment had to occur. The values went down. Banks here had been making loans up to six times a persons income – all to get the big bonuses. After all, there was no risk – they thought house prices would always go up.
Except they didn’t! There was no incentive or check on the reckless sellers of mortgages in America. All they cared about was their big bonuses. Eventually, there were trillions of dollars in ‘TOXIC LOANS’ swishing around the banking world in thousands of bundles. The inbuilt warning mechanisms in the super-computers’ programmes began to flash red as the situation neared meltdown levels. The worst culprit in the UK was Northern Rock. It was borrowing billions on very short-term contracts of typically three months, to finance long-term loans many times greater than its assets. Then someone noticed! Other banks refused to lend them any more money because they were insolvent. In steps the government bails out this small Mickey Mouse bank with tens of billions of taxpayers money, to save a nationwide run on the banks.
The worst in America was Lehman Brothers who amazingly had loaned out eighty dollars for every dollar it owned! The American government had more sense than ours and let it go bust. Now all the banks in the world turned the computers to looking at how much their competitors were in trouble and the news was bad, very bad. As a result they stopped the short-term loans to each other that the whole ‘house of cards’ depended on and the toxic bundles carousel came to a grinding halt.
Trillions of dollars of taxpayers money around the world were poured in to stop a worldwide collapse of the banking system and our grandchildren will still be paying it off when we are gone. The chief accountant to the British government was asked in a TV interview, ‘If I gave you a copy of the annual audited accounts of Lloyds TSB Bank, would you be able to understand them?’ The answer was a firm ‘No’, and this from the country’s most senior accountant!
The human cost has been appalling. Repossessed houses and millions more jobless. Our children will be less prosperous as a result. The lesson is that unfettered greed and powerful computers together are a TOXIC mix.
Friday, 27 November 2009
To Russia with memories
To Russia with memories
Anyone who has read my first book, ‘Are we nearly there yet?’ will know about our first trip to Moscow in 1988 and the traumas that amazing trip involved. So it was with that trip in our memories we proceeded with interest, a week ago, to see how the old place has changed over the past twenty one years.
The motive for the trip is the same as it was in 1988 – to help bring the scriptures to those who do not have them. I was representing the UK Board of the Institute for Bible Translation (IBT) at the annual Board meeting of IBT Russia. I have been on the Board of IBT UK for five years. The head office for the mission is situated in an ancient Monastery on the banks of the Moscow River. Here a dedicated staff organise the translation and printing of scriptures into the non-Slavic languages of the former Soviet Union. There are 140 such languages and they cover 40 million people who have little or nothing of the scriptures in their mother tongue. ‘Every tribe, every tongue, every nation’ Rev. 5:9 is the watchword.
So far we have printed at least a Gospel and usually much more into 80 of these languages. So far a full Bible in five languages and a complete New Testament in twenty six languages. Languages such as Chechen, Gagauzi, Tartar, Armenian, Uzbek, Georgian, Uighur, Yakut, Ossetic, Turkmen, Tuvin – just to name a few of the more well known. Included in the work has been a children’s Bible in 36 languages. The children’s’ Bibles are particularly important because their parents will make sure the children learn to read in their own mother tongue and often, this is the only book they may have. The work is incredibly difficult and new words sometimes have to be developed to get the Biblical meaning of words like ‘Lord’ across. A single Gospel can take up to ten years to translate. Most projects take five years or more.
Moscow has changed! The roads are gridlocked and the streets lined with parked Mercedes, BMW, Lexus and masses of 4X4 cruisers – all covered in mud. Red Square is about the same except for the famous Gum stores. It used to stock expensive rubbish, but now it has the world’s collection of super-rich designer shops where they dare not advertise the prices. ‘If you need to ask the price – you can’t afford it!’ High officials and mafia tough guys float around the place with their beautiful molls on their arms, dressed in four inch heels, jewellery and expensive furs. I got chatting to one who came and sat by me (I think out of curiosity) until her tough looking bloke with cropped hair, a black leather jacket, bulging muscles and no sense of humour, came and stared at me before whisking her away, as she quickly explained that I was only some stupid English tourist. The highlight for us was a visit to the Moscow State Circus. What an amazing show! Animals galore, with trained Lions, a massive tiger, leopard, camels, monkeys, ostriches, horses, lamas, parrots, all performing the most unlikely routines. The finale, which brought the house down, was a single seal that performed the most amazing feats I have ever seen. The lighting, lasers, special effects, intricate sets, and music, all combined to add to an amazing show.
We were reminded of just how big Moscow is as we walked endlessly between our accommodation(at a Methodist Seminary), the monastery, Metro stations, church and tourist attractions. We came home exhausted. My lack of fitness, bad knee and short legs made it rather a trial. The Metro stations are still done up like Tsarist palaces and the old wooden escalators whisk hundreds of people at a time, at high speed, down to near the centre of the earth. The Metro trains are noisy and propel themselves across Moscow at about a thousand miles an hour. Great fun except we couldn’t read the station names in Cyrillic script. A thirty five year veteran of IBT was Barbro who was our guide and lovely companion.
At the board meeting, I had my arm lovingly but effectively twisted to take on the new role of International Chairman. So we will be going back next year too. I must try to get fit – or what passes as fit with me – before then.
Anyone who has read my first book, ‘Are we nearly there yet?’ will know about our first trip to Moscow in 1988 and the traumas that amazing trip involved. So it was with that trip in our memories we proceeded with interest, a week ago, to see how the old place has changed over the past twenty one years.
The motive for the trip is the same as it was in 1988 – to help bring the scriptures to those who do not have them. I was representing the UK Board of the Institute for Bible Translation (IBT) at the annual Board meeting of IBT Russia. I have been on the Board of IBT UK for five years. The head office for the mission is situated in an ancient Monastery on the banks of the Moscow River. Here a dedicated staff organise the translation and printing of scriptures into the non-Slavic languages of the former Soviet Union. There are 140 such languages and they cover 40 million people who have little or nothing of the scriptures in their mother tongue. ‘Every tribe, every tongue, every nation’ Rev. 5:9 is the watchword.
So far we have printed at least a Gospel and usually much more into 80 of these languages. So far a full Bible in five languages and a complete New Testament in twenty six languages. Languages such as Chechen, Gagauzi, Tartar, Armenian, Uzbek, Georgian, Uighur, Yakut, Ossetic, Turkmen, Tuvin – just to name a few of the more well known. Included in the work has been a children’s Bible in 36 languages. The children’s’ Bibles are particularly important because their parents will make sure the children learn to read in their own mother tongue and often, this is the only book they may have. The work is incredibly difficult and new words sometimes have to be developed to get the Biblical meaning of words like ‘Lord’ across. A single Gospel can take up to ten years to translate. Most projects take five years or more.
Moscow has changed! The roads are gridlocked and the streets lined with parked Mercedes, BMW, Lexus and masses of 4X4 cruisers – all covered in mud. Red Square is about the same except for the famous Gum stores. It used to stock expensive rubbish, but now it has the world’s collection of super-rich designer shops where they dare not advertise the prices. ‘If you need to ask the price – you can’t afford it!’ High officials and mafia tough guys float around the place with their beautiful molls on their arms, dressed in four inch heels, jewellery and expensive furs. I got chatting to one who came and sat by me (I think out of curiosity) until her tough looking bloke with cropped hair, a black leather jacket, bulging muscles and no sense of humour, came and stared at me before whisking her away, as she quickly explained that I was only some stupid English tourist. The highlight for us was a visit to the Moscow State Circus. What an amazing show! Animals galore, with trained Lions, a massive tiger, leopard, camels, monkeys, ostriches, horses, lamas, parrots, all performing the most unlikely routines. The finale, which brought the house down, was a single seal that performed the most amazing feats I have ever seen. The lighting, lasers, special effects, intricate sets, and music, all combined to add to an amazing show.
We were reminded of just how big Moscow is as we walked endlessly between our accommodation(at a Methodist Seminary), the monastery, Metro stations, church and tourist attractions. We came home exhausted. My lack of fitness, bad knee and short legs made it rather a trial. The Metro stations are still done up like Tsarist palaces and the old wooden escalators whisk hundreds of people at a time, at high speed, down to near the centre of the earth. The Metro trains are noisy and propel themselves across Moscow at about a thousand miles an hour. Great fun except we couldn’t read the station names in Cyrillic script. A thirty five year veteran of IBT was Barbro who was our guide and lovely companion.
At the board meeting, I had my arm lovingly but effectively twisted to take on the new role of International Chairman. So we will be going back next year too. I must try to get fit – or what passes as fit with me – before then.
Thursday, 12 November 2009
Why evolution is imposible
EVOLUTION
Two of the world’s leading astro-physicists - Sir Fred Hoyle and Chandara Wik Rama Singh conducted ten years of research - with unlimited funds, access to the worlds best libraries and data-bases - they set themselves the task of answering the following question :-
‘’ Since we as atheists know that life is the result of a naturalistic evolutionary process, what are the mathematic and scientific odds, that given any part of the universe and time and opportunity, life would express itself.’’
After ten years of research their conclusion was :-
‘’The chances of life coming about on Earth or anywhere in the universe by natural processes are 10 to the power of 40,000 - which means that it is impossible.’’
If we were to count all the electrons in the universe, they would be 10 to the power of 80
Most of the universe is space. But if it were all electrons - a solid metal ball of electrons, the number of electrons would be 10 to the power of 130
It would be easier for a whirlwind to blow through a scrapyard and for a Jumbo jet in flight to come out the other end.
When asked by journalists if he was still an atheist?
Sir Fred Hoyle said ‘’someone has been monkeying about with physics the chemistry and the biology of the universe.’’
Two of the world’s leading astro-physicists - Sir Fred Hoyle and Chandara Wik Rama Singh conducted ten years of research - with unlimited funds, access to the worlds best libraries and data-bases - they set themselves the task of answering the following question :-
‘’ Since we as atheists know that life is the result of a naturalistic evolutionary process, what are the mathematic and scientific odds, that given any part of the universe and time and opportunity, life would express itself.’’
After ten years of research their conclusion was :-
‘’The chances of life coming about on Earth or anywhere in the universe by natural processes are 10 to the power of 40,000 - which means that it is impossible.’’
If we were to count all the electrons in the universe, they would be 10 to the power of 80
Most of the universe is space. But if it were all electrons - a solid metal ball of electrons, the number of electrons would be 10 to the power of 130
It would be easier for a whirlwind to blow through a scrapyard and for a Jumbo jet in flight to come out the other end.
When asked by journalists if he was still an atheist?
Sir Fred Hoyle said ‘’someone has been monkeying about with physics the chemistry and the biology of the universe.’’
Wednesday, 21 October 2009
John's new Book
At long last my new book is now available. It was my intention to call it 'Today is the last day that we cry.' However, the publishers - who are all powerful in these things - wanted to call it: 'OVERCOMING THE POWERS OF HELL'. They believe that the more dramatic title will sell more.Two amazing stories are told in tandem in this book, touching each other at significant points. There is the story of Beatrice Omese and the wonderful way God has used her to help over thirty thousand poor and destitute widows through her self-help programme. It is self-funding and a major lesson to anyone wanting to help the poor of Africa. Beatrice had the faith to believe God's promises to her and this ministry has been the fruit of that faith.
The background to this is the twenty year civil war in Northern Uganda. The incursions of the 'Lord's Resistance Army' (LRA) and the unspeakable atrocities they committed. They abducted thirty thousand children over many years and turned them into child soldiers and sex slaves. Only when the churches of Uganda decided to unite in spiritual opposition to this movement, did the solution come. The LRA moved with incredible witchcraft powers and thwarted all attempts by much superior military forces to defeat them. When the spiritual breakthrough came - the victory came. It is a remarkable story. (I don't consider it suitable for children under 16).
The book is 150 pages and costs £7.99 plus £1.50 p & p. Just e mail me at johnbarrymiles@gmail.com and we will send you a copy. If you wish to buy one as a Christmas present for someone, I will write a dedication in the front and sign it. If you just want it signed for yourself, I will do that automatically.
My first book, 'ARE WE NEARLY THERE YET?' which many of you may have already read, is still available at £7.99 plus £1.50 p & p. If you would like both books, They will be £10 for the two plus £2.00 p & p.
The second book: TO CATCH A THIEF is also available at £6.99 plus £1.50 p & p. The success of this book has amazed everyone, especially me. Over eighty thousand copies sold, translated into six languages, and won the UK Christian book awards prize for the best biography of 2008.
If the insomniacs among you want all three? £15.00 plus £2.50 p & p.
So there you are, Christmas present problems soved at a stroke!
Friday, 25 September 2009
Is God Good?
Is God Good?
On Nairobi’s over crowded street,
Where poverty and danger meet;
Four young friends in a minibus,
Squashed in tight with noise and fuss.
About God’s work - a taxi ride,
Crushed and poor they swallow their pride.
2
To share the Gospel with Nairobi’s youth,
To tell rich and poor the hearfelt truth.
This is their mission, their purpose and joy.
But thoughts disturbed by sudden cry,
Broken down truck had blocked their lane,
Nowhere to go – two young friends slain.
3
No traffic police to warn or care,
No one to offer a final prayer.
One’s brother is dead and he almost,
With broken neck and nearly lost.
The two friends are together no more,
Such is the lot of the travelling poor.
4
Two bothers, the apple of the parent’s eye,
O how to break the news and cry
Together with them, and share their woe.
Of the four only one walked away to go
To kneel and cry a fountain of tears;
Assail the heavens with questioning prayers.
5
Who will help the injured brother?
With costly care will he ever recover?
Our foreign friends, will they meet the cost?
Will our remaining son be the third one lost?
The church cannot help and we are so poor,
Will God provide and open a door?
6
Two thousand gather – for sad, sad memory,
How could this happen, how could it be?
The Pastor stands with solemn face.
What can he say about God’s grace?
Each tear filled eye towards God’s man,
How can he say ‘This is God’s plan?’
7
He asks the question - ‘Is God good?’
Two thousand reply from where they stood,
‘Yes, God is good’ their cry rang out.
They trust their God and do not doubt.
‘All the time?’ was his next cry.
‘Yes, all the time – triumphant reply
8
A year gone by but wounds are still raw.
Praise God He came and opened that door.
One brother restored, his faith still strong
This story is an African song.
With sudden death, and life seems cheap;
But their faith in God runs ever deep.
Friday, 18 September 2009
Boy soldier - God's amazing grace
From Josh Shaada - IT Missionary in Soroti.
About a month ago David showed up in Soroti (Uganda) with one of the saddest stories I know. When he was 9 years old he was abducted by the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA, a rebel group) together with his parents and friends. After they killed his parents, David was marched to Somalia where his friends were sold as slaves in exchange for weapons and bullets. David was then taken to Sudan where he was trained to become a soldier. He was beaten and treated harshly until he became a soldier. He was forced to kill, steal, abduct children, and get married. Once he was caught trying to escape. As a result, he was tortured, shot, and cut with a bayonet. It was not until his fifth year with the LRA that he successfully
managed to escape. After turning himself in to government soldiers in Congo, he was brought to an army barracks here in Uganda. Sadly, soldiers there also abused him. Finally, one soldier from Teso region noticed him and brought him back to Soroti. David was staying with the soldier’s aunt, but continued to be tormented by demons. David was accused of lighting a house on fire and was driven away from home.
Josh recently went through the 7 steps to spiritual freedom with David. As they went through the first step of confessing counterfeit religious experience, David had much to confess since he had been the victim of much satanic ritual abuse. David also confessed great bondage to fear. The most powerful time of their day together came during the step on forgiveness. One by one he forgave the man who abducted him, the man who killed his parents, the man who sold his friends into slavery, the man who forced him to kill others, and so on. By walking in the truth of God’s word, David’s life continues to be transformed. Satan had him bound but Jesus set him free. David is now living with a local pastor and his family. We also helped David return to school
this week so he can finish his education
About a month ago David showed up in Soroti (Uganda) with one of the saddest stories I know. When he was 9 years old he was abducted by the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA, a rebel group) together with his parents and friends. After they killed his parents, David was marched to Somalia where his friends were sold as slaves in exchange for weapons and bullets. David was then taken to Sudan where he was trained to become a soldier. He was beaten and treated harshly until he became a soldier. He was forced to kill, steal, abduct children, and get married. Once he was caught trying to escape. As a result, he was tortured, shot, and cut with a bayonet. It was not until his fifth year with the LRA that he successfully
managed to escape. After turning himself in to government soldiers in Congo, he was brought to an army barracks here in Uganda. Sadly, soldiers there also abused him. Finally, one soldier from Teso region noticed him and brought him back to Soroti. David was staying with the soldier’s aunt, but continued to be tormented by demons. David was accused of lighting a house on fire and was driven away from home.
Josh recently went through the 7 steps to spiritual freedom with David. As they went through the first step of confessing counterfeit religious experience, David had much to confess since he had been the victim of much satanic ritual abuse. David also confessed great bondage to fear. The most powerful time of their day together came during the step on forgiveness. One by one he forgave the man who abducted him, the man who killed his parents, the man who sold his friends into slavery, the man who forced him to kill others, and so on. By walking in the truth of God’s word, David’s life continues to be transformed. Satan had him bound but Jesus set him free. David is now living with a local pastor and his family. We also helped David return to school
this week so he can finish his education
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